Reasoning by analogy: why a rolling pin is not like a cake pan

The other day, I was reminded about an article that I read in the Harvard Business Review a few years ago on reasoning by analogy, How Strategists Really Think.

The basic premise of the article is that while reasoning by analogy can be a really great tool for strategic thinking, it’s equally likely to mislead companies. In an attempt to make reasoning by analogy a successful strategic tool, the articles authors, Giovanni Gavetti and Jan Rivkin propose 4 guidelines for reasoning by analogy.

1. Articulate the analogy – make your assumptions explicit.
2. Identify why the source strategy worked – make sure you’ve accurately understood the rules of the game.
3. Identify the similarities and differences between the source and the target setting – make sure you acknowledge and understand when the analogy is transferable and when it is not.
4. Translate your strategy to the new setting - borrow what you can, make modifications as necessary.

I was thinking about this after applying an analogy on my kids that totally failed. Let me explain.

A few weeks ago, we were planning to make pizzas with the monkeys. To get them excited about it, I brought them to Fante’s, the fabulous ’kitchen arts’ store in our neighborhood. They helped me pick out rolling pins. And then we went home and made pizza. The trip to the store really built up their sense of occasion. Once we got home and turned the house into a pizzeria, they were totally engrossed in the activity for about 1/2 an hour. (See gratuitous cute kids video here.) Pretty good for two almost three-year-olds.

Fast forward a few weeks and I start thinking about the cakes for the boys birthday party. This year, I’ve decided to try and make the cake myself. But I couldn’t figure out what kind of cake to make. So I thought it would be a good idea to take the boys to Fante’s to pick out a cake pan. After all, they had so much fun buying the rolling pin.

Of course, I got the analogy all wrong. The rolling pin was a much easier choice -there were only about 4 or 5 versions of them. And it didn’t really matter which one we picked out. Worse case scenario: we end up with a $20 rolling pin instead of a $2 version. I know how to use both of them to make pizza.  Ultimately, picking out a rolling pin is low stakes. Involving the kids is a no brainer.

But a pan for a birthday cake is a whole different ballgame. Sure, it’s the same store, but that’s where the similarity ends. You see, some cakes are hard to make and decorate and others are simple. Despite my best attempts to steer the boys to a heart shaped pan (the design we had talked about on our way to the store), a star, even a simple lion or a truck, they wouldn’t bite. They were indecisive for a painful 20 minutes – not very fun in a crowded store. And when the did decide, they chose this: In case you don’t recognize him, its Pablo from the Backyardigans. He comes complete with his own icing kit.

You may not know this from reading my blog, but I’m not really a baker. And I’m certainly no illustrator. So this weekend will be really interesting when I try to make a cake that looks anything like that adorable singing penguin. But that’s not really the point. The point is, I reasoned by analogy, and foolishly didn’t think through whether the circumstances were actually analogous. Turns out they were not.

Now I don’t always mess this up. I have had a few successful analgies. One of my favorite is the use of the ‘Goodbye song’ from tumbling class. You know, ‘you touch the ground, you touch the sky, you turn around and you say, goodbye.’ It’s brilliant. Totally distracts kids from the fact that their favorite hour of the week is over. It also works when it’s time to say goodbye to the polar bears at the zoo, a favorite toy, or the Bob the Builder DVD you’ve been watching for so long that the song is etched into the deepest recesses of your brain. Makes sense, doesn’t it. The song helps kids make transitions. And does in fact work for almost any transition. 

Reasoning by analogy can be very useful, for both strategists and for parents. You just gotta watch out for situations that look the same but aren’t. Or you could end up with a Pablo, oh, yeah, two Pablo cake pans. Anyone need a cake pan for their next birthday party?